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ADVANCED RANKINGS


If you want to skip directly to the various advanced ranking tables,
you can click here. If you want the heatmap, click here.



This is the advanced rankings page. Below are the rankings of the various individual metrics that make up each team's weekly ranking. The weekly ranking is then combined (with weighting) with the previous weeks' rankings to determine the final ranking presented on the rankings page.

The following are descriptions of each metric:
  • Winning percentage (W%) is a team's wins divided by the number of games played, in other words: it's the team's record expressed as a single number;
  • Close-game winning percentage (CGW%) is a team's winning percentage with the outcomes of close games (4-point margin or less) reversed (e.g. if Team A beat Team B by 3, Team A's record is 1-0, but its close game record would be 0-1);
  • 1/2 winning percentage is a team's winning percentage starting at .500 (to temper extremes in the regular winning percentage);
  • Simple Rating System (SRS) is a rating system based on margin of victory, points scored, points allowed, and strength of schedule as calculated by Pro-Football-Reference;
  • Football Power Index (FPI) is another rating system maintained by ESPN;
  • Power Rankings (PR) is an average of power rankings put out by various media outlets including the NFL, ESPN, Sports Illustrated, NBC, CBS, Bleacher Report, Yahoo Sports, Massey Ratings, and TeamRankings;
  • NFL Futures (SB) is an average of five sets of Super Bowl odds put out by various sports books like FanDuel, Rivers, MGM, etc.; and
  • Against the Spread Record (ASpW%) is a ranking of a team's record against the spread.
  • A very simplified ELO Rating (ELO) where each game result is assigned point values each week based on the teams' rankings and whether the favorite or underdog won. If the underdog wins, they earn points equal to the inverse of the favorite's ranking (on a scale of 1 to 32), and the favorite loses points equal to the underdog's ranking. If the favorite wins, they earn points equal to the inverse of the underdog's ranking, and the underdog loses points equal to the favorite's ranking. For example, if Team A, ranked 4th loses to Team B, ranked 25, then Team A loses 25 points, and Team B earns 29 points. If Team A wins, they earn 8 points, and Team B loses 4 points. All teams start with a point value of 544 points (32 points multiplied by 17 games in a regular season; essentially guaranteeing that no team can go below 0 points in a season), and results are added to or subtracted from the running total for each team, each week. In the examples above, after week 1 if Team A won, then Team A would have a total of 552 points, and Team B would have a total of 540, going into week 2. Underdogs winning result in larger point swings because those outcomes are unexpected. Favorites winning result in smaller point totals because those outcomes are expected.
Each of the above metrics is then weighted, and the rankings are averaged together according to those weights. Because early in the season some factors like winning percentage or SRS can fluctuate significantly from week to week, the weights are heavier for the power rankings and sportsbooks as those rely more on the "eye test". However, once we get to week 5 of the season, the more objective, numbers-based metrics carry the heavier weights. The current weights for the metrics are listed below:

W%:10.0%
CGW%:7.5%
1/2W%:6.0%
SRS:6.5%
FPI:6.5%
PR:33.0%
SB:21.5%
ASpW%:2.0%
ELO:7.0%

Finally, once each metric is weighted and combined to determine teams' weekly rankings, those weekly rankings are then combined with previous weeks' rankings to determine the final ranking presented on the rankings page. This is what I call the heatmap ranking (as it is calculated using the ranking heatmap). The final rankings are determined by averaging each prior week's ranking by half. In other words and for example: in week 3, a team's week 3 ranking counts for 50%, week 2's ranking for 25% and week 1's for 12.5%. The remaining 12.5% is divided by the number of weeks (3 in this example) and added back to each week's allocation (3: 54.17%, 2: 29.17%, 1: 16.66%) to total 100%. So in this example, if a team was ranked 1st, 5th, and 9th in weeks 1, 2, and 3, respectively, the team's overall ranking would be roughly 4th (with the math working out to a final weighted ranking of 3.4996).

The whole idea behind determining final rankings this way is to prevent a fluke week from changing the rankings drastically. If polls and prognosticators figured a team was worthy of a number one ranking, but they stumble at the start of the season due to bad luck, there is still merit to the assessment that they're a good team. But a few losses can significantly impact the numbers-side of these rankings. So, ensuring that past weeks' rankings still carry some weight, without overshadowing the team's most recent results, allows for a steadier, less-varied ranking system.

Also presented at the bottom of this page are the "percentiles" for each ranking category. The numbers in that table are derived from each of the various metrics explained above. Each "percentile" ties the actual values for each metric to a 0 to 100 scale (with further modifications to weight each) where the best value for each metric is 100, the worst is 0, and the rest are distributed between 0 and 100 in proportion to where the individual metric falls on that scale in relation to the max and min. The twelve ranking metrics listed are categorized by importance, (1, 2, or 3) and thus divided by that number. So for example, if a category 1 element is the highest for a given metric and therefore 100, the number here would be 100. If the metric were a category 3, then that 100 would be 33.3. These categories are indicated by the superscripts next to the metrics' names.

Please note: Last year, the heatmap also appeared at the bottom of this page. That has now moved to its own page. Please see the heatmap here.




RANKING TABLES



Weekly Rankings (by Category) Table
Combined Winning Percentages
Power Rankings
Sportsbooks NFL Futures
Statistics-Based Rankings
ELO Ratings
Percentiles

WEEKLY RANKING

TeamW%rCGW%r1/2W%rSRSrFPIrPRrSBrAtSrELOrWghtd AvgRANK
BUF11112222112.431
SF1113135152.952
SEA1914614863.183
KC19174461044.614
CIN111161158135.695
LAR999936110146.306
BAL999759310198.047
MIN1111131017128.208
PHI19130127725108.749
NE9196101298129.5010
DEN9991716812101210.5711
JAX9991881113101911.8612
CHI9992221316101712.6613
NO91951715211712.9214
DET92591491410251412.9515
LV111102419241914.5016
DAL9992661813102415.0017
GB925911151715252515.9218
CAR99913212123102317.9919
HOU25252522141611252518.1420
PIT99925232222101718.7121
NYG99923322026101118.8822
IND2592515192220102220.2823
NYJ9192125272811920.9124
ARI9991928282910821.4125
CLE99928302630101622.3226
TB25252527182419253023.4627
LAC25252524202518253223.6128
WAS2592532262925102725.7129
TEN25252529273031102928.3430
ATL25252531283127253128.4631
MIA25252519313232252828.9432

COMBINED WINNING PERCENTAGES

TeamW%CGW%1/2W%AtSAvg.RANK
BUF1.0001.0000.7501.0000.9501
SF1.0001.0000.7501.0000.9501
MIN1.0001.0000.7501.0000.9501
CIN1.0001.0000.7501.0000.9501
LV1.0001.0000.7501.0000.9501
SEA1.0000.5000.7500.7500.8256
KC1.0000.5000.7500.5000.8007
PHI1.0000.5000.7500.0000.7508
NYJ0.5001.0000.5001.0000.6509
NO0.5001.0000.5001.0000.6509
NE0.5001.0000.5000.7500.62511
JAX0.5000.5000.5000.5000.50012
CHI0.5000.5000.5000.5000.50012
PIT0.5000.5000.5000.5000.50012
BAL0.5000.5000.5000.5000.50012
NYG0.5000.5000.5000.5000.50012
ARI0.5000.5000.5000.5000.50012
LAR0.5000.5000.5000.5000.50012
DEN0.5000.5000.5000.5000.50012
CAR0.5000.5000.5000.5000.50012
DAL0.5000.5000.5000.5000.50012
CLE0.5000.5000.5000.5000.50012
DET0.5000.0000.5000.0000.35023
GB0.5000.0000.5000.0000.35023
WAS0.0000.5000.2500.5000.20025
IND0.0000.5000.2500.5000.20025
TEN0.0000.0000.2500.5000.10027
HOU0.0000.0000.2500.0000.05028
LAC0.0000.0000.2500.0000.05028
ATL0.0000.0000.2500.0000.05028
MIA0.0000.0000.2500.0000.05028
TB0.0000.0000.2500.0000.05028

WEEKLY POWER RANKINGS

TeamNFLESPNSINBCCBSB/RYAHOOMASSEYTRAVG.RANK
SEA1211112111.251
BUF2122221341.882
SF7345333233.753
KC4434546554.384
CIN3963485685.505
LAR8559864926.756
PHI106987597137.637
DEN6876971211148.258
BAL57101311971469.509
MIN1512811611104109.6310
JAX91311710108171210.6311
NE181015141412118712.7512
CHI1611121212141415913.2513
DET13141816151513121114.5014
NO14191415181315161815.5015
HOU11151310241619251516.6316
GB20171719131820131717.1317
DAL12161920171717221617.5018
LV22202122162018102018.6319
NYG21182217192216212619.5020
CAR17212021202122242320.7521
IND19241627252321262522.6322
PIT26253018221923192422.7523
TB24232726212425292124.8824
CLE23292623282824202925.1325
LAC29222425232526301925.5026
ARI30262524262729183025.6327
NYJ25272328272628232725.8828
WAS28282830292927282228.3829
TEN27302929313030322829.7530
ATL31313132303131313131.0031
MIA32323231323232273231.2532

WEEKLY SELECTED SPORTSBOOKS
Odds to win the Super Bowl

TeamMGMDftKngCaesarsFanDuelRiversAverageRank
LAR6506005006006506001
BUF75075010007508008102
BAL10001000100010009509903
SEA90011001200100090010204
SF1100110019001100100012405
KC1200120016001200130013006
PHI1600160017001400140015407
CIN1700180018001600170017208
NE2000200018002100200019809
DET20002200190022001900204010
HOU22002200180023002200214011
DEN20002200200022002500218012
JAX22002200300022002200236013
DAL24002500250022002200236013
GB28003000200033003500292015
CHI30003500240028003000294016
MIN28003000500027002700324017
LAC40006000170045004000404018
TB65006600550080008000692019
IND65008000600090006500720020
NO65008000900070006000730021
PIT750080005000900010000790022
CAR80001000090001000010000940023
LV100001250015000900075001080024
WAS1000015000600015000100001120025
NYG750015000700015000175001240026
ATL15000200001300025000200001860027
NYJ17500200002000025000175002000028
ARI25000300005000035000225003250029
CLE30000500002000050000400003800030
TEN40000750001300050000750005060031
MIA100000100000350001000001000008700032

WEEKLY COMPUTER/STATISTICAL RANKINGS

TeamSRSFPIAverageRanking
SF24.107.3015.701
MIN25.401.4013.402
CHI24.90-1.9011.503
SEA17.703.0010.354
KC10.404.507.455
BAL10.404.107.256
LAR8.604.706.657
NE10.901.906.408
BUF6.405.706.059
NO11.00-0.605.2010
GB6.500.503.5011
DET3.102.302.7012
LV6.90-3.001.9513
CAR5.10-1.401.8514
CIN0.101.700.9015
JAX-1.902.600.3516
IND1.00-1.20-0.1017
DEN-1.60-0.30-0.9518
NYJ-2.50-3.20-2.8519
HOU-7.601.10-3.2520
ARI-2.00-5.30-3.6521
DAL-12.503.00-4.7522
MIA-2.00-8.00-5.0023
LAC-9.60-1.30-5.4524
PIT-10.80-2.70-6.7525
TB-14.50-1.10-7.8026
NYG-8.60-8.30-8.4527
PHI-19.301.50-8.9028
TEN-17.90-4.70-11.3029
CLE-16.90-6.20-11.5530
ATL-20.70-5.30-13.0031
WAS-24.10-3.50-13.8032

SIMPLIFIED ELO RATINGS

TeamELORANK
BUF5931
MIN5892
CIN5833
KC5804
SF5775
SEA5756
NO5667
ARI5648
LV5619
PHI55610
NYG55511
NE55412
DEN55412
DET55314
LAR55314
CLE54116
CHI53717
PIT53717
BAL53419
NYJ53419
JAX53419
IND53322
CAR53223
DAL53124
HOU53025
GB53025
WAS52127
MIA51228
TEN50929
TB49930
ATL49631
LAC48732

WEEKLY PERCENTILES

TeamW%pOpDpSRSpFPIpCGW%p1/2W%pPRpSBpAtSpELOpSUM
SF100.075.493.148.750.033.333.345.933.133.328.3574.53
MIN100.052.584.550.031.133.333.336.032.333.332.1518.40
BUF100.0100.020.730.844.933.333.348.533.333.333.3511.48
SEA100.045.998.342.236.216.733.350.033.225.027.7508.46
CIN100.060.770.724.432.133.333.342.432.933.330.2493.37
KC100.078.758.634.841.016.733.344.633.116.729.2486.81
LV100.060.781.031.317.033.333.320.829.433.323.3463.51
NE50.023.0100.035.432.733.316.731.932.825.021.1401.79
PHI100.052.555.24.831.416.733.338.433.00.021.7386.94
NO50.062.344.835.524.733.316.725.830.733.324.8382.01
BAL50.068.946.634.839.716.716.736.933.216.714.8374.86
CHI50.075.448.349.520.516.716.730.832.416.715.7372.66
LAR50.031.170.733.041.716.716.741.733.316.720.8372.32
JAX50.050.875.922.434.916.716.734.132.716.714.8365.61
NYJ50.039.375.921.816.333.316.78.925.833.314.8336.19
DAL50.067.244.811.736.216.716.723.232.716.713.8329.71
CAR50.090.220.729.522.116.716.717.229.916.714.2323.71
DEN50.023.051.722.725.616.716.737.332.716.721.1314.11
DET50.075.45.227.534.00.016.728.632.80.020.8290.83
PIT50.011.570.713.417.916.716.714.030.516.715.7273.81
GB50.042.631.030.928.20.016.723.632.40.013.5269.01
ARI50.027.950.022.39.616.716.78.721.016.724.2263.72
NYG50.029.544.815.70.016.716.718.528.816.721.4258.61
CLE50.027.936.27.36.716.716.79.618.916.717.0223.56
IND0.060.70.025.422.816.70.014.030.816.714.5201.37
HOU0.034.431.016.730.10.00.024.732.70.013.5183.24
WAS0.042.622.40.015.416.70.06.129.216.710.7159.78
TB0.049.231.09.723.10.00.011.430.90.03.8159.10
LAC0.019.737.914.622.40.00.010.932.00.00.0137.58
TEN0.023.046.66.311.50.00.03.014.016.76.9127.88
ATL0.00.034.53.49.60.00.00.626.40.02.877.31
MIA0.016.420.722.31.00.00.00.00.00.07.968.23



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